As Americans brace for the next presidential campaign — already underway and showing on a screen near you — press pundits are worried about the news media’s readiness for the challenge ahead.
Will reporters follow the same assumptions that made the outcome in 2016 such a shock? Can pollsters reassure a public that has soured on the power of political forecasting?
To answer those questions, I turned to a cohort accustomed to diagnosing human foibles: scholars who have expertise in psychology. After all, journalists are basically a bunch of neurotics. And with the 2020 race looming, maybe we could all use some time on the couch.
“All of us who thought it was inevitable that Trump would lose ignored warning signs that we were wrong,” said Susan Fiske, a professor of social psychology at Princeton.
It turns out that human beings — and I’m including journalists in that group — have a tendency to discount the possibility of events that have not occurred before.
“There’s an old joke — ‘Dear Diary, the 100 Years War started today,’” said Ms. Fiske, who has consulted for political candidates eager for insight into the average voter’s mind.
Her point being: Hindsight may be 20/20, but when it comes to predicting 2020, we may as well be Mr. Magoo. If reporters, pundits, bureau chiefs and cable news producers are able to live with uncertainty about future events, rather than clinging to any fixed ideas about the campaign’s outcome, they will be less likely to make regrettable decisions about what their coverage emphasizes and what it plays down.
Noah Oppenheim, who became president of NBC News in 2017, said that when news channels aired footage of Mr. Trump’s early campaign rallies, which featured his anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim remarks, some producers based in New York and Washington figured voters would be turned off.
Instead, Mr. Oppenheim said in an interview, “A lot of people listened to it, and it resonated.”
Even after Mr. Trump became the Republican nominee, and thousands flocked to his rallies, many journalists and voters seemed unable to imagine that he could succeed in a general election.
“It’s not that journalists missed the signs of Trump’s rise; it’s that journalists and the rest of us were not well equipped to understand the future,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professor of risk management who popularized the term “black swan” to describe how experts ignore the warning signs of enormous surprise events.
“We are fooled chronically by the same thing over and over again,” Mr. Taleb said, noting that people tend to ignore that historical aberrations — wars, catastrophes, financial crashes — were rarely anticipated at the time they occurred. “You’re driving forward looking into the rearview mirror,” he said.
Journalists, he counseled, ought to develop a habit of questioning their assumptions. The notion of Mr. Trump’s becoming president seemed deeply unlikely before 2016. So was the notion of an African-American president, before 2008.
“In all situations, we look for certainties; we need therapy, to feel that we are being guided, for comfort,” Mr. Taleb said. “For the next election, the best thing to say is 50/50, or 48/52. But you don’t say he will win or he won’t win.”
The tricky thing about presidential contests is that Americans infuse a great deal of emotional energy into the outcome, which can further cloud clear thinking. That includes experts who, as they now admit, could have known better.
“The conventional wisdom gave too little weight to the possibility that Trump would win,” said Steven Pinker, the author and Harvard psychologist. “I confess to being among those that were stunned by the outcome and probably shouldn’t have been.”
Mr. Pinker, who urges students to accept that data is almost always more reliable than intuition, followed the polls that showed Mr. Trump at the top of the Republican field. On Election Day, he understood intellectually that a 30 percent chance of winning meant that if the election were held 10 times, Mr. Trump would prevail in three of them. Yet he still could not bring himself to contemplate that Mr. Trump might win.
“We tend to play out movies in our mind’s eye,” Mr. Pinker said, “and indeed are overly influenced by them.”
That is grist for media pollsters and the news consumers who treat them like oracles. How about the political journalists on the ground, whose job it is to gauge the mood of the electorate and monitor the competition in real time?
After the personality-driven race of 2016, there were calls for a renewed focus on policy. In this view, the news media should stop playing up the day-to-day gaffes and campaign tactics in favor of emphasizing serious issues like the candidates’ positions on climate change, the minimum wage and European trade.
It’s a noble goal, and news organizations in 2016 produced plenty of deeply reported work on such matters. Ms. Fiske, though, said that elections were fundamentally about voters sizing up their faith in an individual, a decision rooted more in emotion than logic.
“The whole country says, ‘Who is this person, and what do they stand for?’” Ms. Fiske said. “I can tell you there are only two dimensions, really. One is, ‘Are they trustworthy, are they on my side?’ And the other is, ‘Can they do stuff? Are they competent?’”
In an ideal world, elections would focus on policy, Ms. Fiske said. “But you can defend the regular person who is saying, ‘I don’t know what issues are going to come up in the next four years.’”
O.K., so the theorists have weighed in. How about the practitioners?
In interviews, top political producers at major TV networks said that a main goal for the coming race was to keep viewers informed, while tempering their expectations.
“Our interpretation of the polls is what we need to work on in 2020,” said Sam Feist, CNN’s Washington bureau chief. “It’s incumbent on us as political journalists to remind our audiences that a two-point race could very well be tied.”
Cherie Grzech, the vice president of the Fox News Washington bureau who oversees the network’s campaign reporting, agreed. “The news cycle is so quick that I think polling will face even a bigger challenge this time around; people’s viewpoints change so quickly,” she said. Still, Ms. Grzech added, “We know there’s great polarization in the country. Some people are going to vote one way or the other, no matter what happens.”
CNN faced criticism in 2016 for broadcasting hours of Trump rallies, once showing footage of an empty Trump lectern even as Hillary Clinton spoke elsewhere. Many networks allowed Mr. Trump to phone in live to answer questions, lured by the direct access to a candidate and the ratings that came with it.
In the election’s aftermath, Jeff Zucker, CNN’s president, issued a mea culpa. Anchors and network executives, though, noted that Mrs. Clinton rejected many of their requests for on-air appearances. Mr. Feist, in an interview, defended CNN’s coverage and said that, “We simply have to make a news judgment each time, and weigh all of the factors as news editors.”
“The first three letters of the word news are ‘new,’” Mr. Feist added. “If a candidate or a newsmaker is able to join you by phone and has something newsworthy to say, that’s an option for us, depending on the moment.”
Mr. Oppenheim, of NBC News, noted that journalists ought to contextualize the news, not censor it.
“I don’t think it’s the obligation of a cable channel to shield its audience from something it might disagree with,” Mr. Oppenheim said. “If you watched the programming around those rallies, you would have heard harsh, aggressive criticism of what was being said.”
Mr. Trump is still attacking journalists’ credibility, and many voters remain concerned about the way 2016 was covered. Mr. Oppenheim acknowledged that the next 21 months would be crucial for trust in the news media as an institution.
“I see every minute of every day as a test for the national media,” he said. “We are under intense scrutiny, and appropriately so. It’s never been more imperative that we get the facts right in our reporting. We know if we slip up, the consequences are going to be significant.”B:
今日七乐彩开奖结果是【漆】【黑】【的】【夜】【色】【中】，【南】【山】【地】【带】【回】【荡】【着】【此】【起】【彼】【伏】【的】【喊】【杀】【声】，【只】【是】【雷】【声】【大】【雨】【点】【小】。 【南】【山】【盗】【的】【大】【本】【营】，【隐】【藏】【在】【深】【山】【中】，【是】【一】【个】【四】【面】【环】【山】【的】【山】【谷】。 【三】【面】【山】【峰】【高】【不】【可】【攀】，【而】【唯】【一】【进】【入】【山】【谷】【的】【那】【一】【面】，【也】【需】【要】【穿】【过】【一】【道】【深】【邃】【的】【峡】【谷】。 【很】【早】【以】【前】，【廖】【长】【河】【就】【在】【各】【处】【山】【峰】【的】【制】【高】【点】【上】，【挖】【了】【很】【多】【地】【下】【工】【事】，【布】【置】【了】【射】【程】【惊】【人】【的】【脚】【踏】
“【来】【人】！”【付】【鄺】【独】【自】【坐】【在】【空】【旷】【的】【大】【殿】【内】，【来】【人】【放】【进】【了】【一】【点】【儿】【光】【亮】，【付】【鄺】【沉】【着】【脸】：“【给】【我】【查】【查】【那】【个】【接】【近】【幻】【火】9.【君】【上】【的】【姑】【娘】【是】【何】【人】。” “【是】！” 【两】【个】【月】【后】， 【阴】【风】【阵】【阵】【吹】【着】，【红】【雨】【偏】【了】【轨】【迹】，【一】【个】【姑】【娘】【背】【着】【一】【个】【浑】【身】【染】【满】【鲜】【血】【的】【白】【衣】【少】【年】，【那】【衣】【服】【看】【上】【去】【像】【婚】【服】【一】【样】，【就】【像】【万】【年】【前】【林】【梦】【生】【和】【幻】【梦】【在】【幻】【梦】【凡】【间】【娘】【亲】
“【你】【在】【哪】【整】【的】【俩】**？”【羽】【罗】【偷】【偷】【把】【苏】【瑾】【叫】【到】【一】【旁】，【压】【低】【声】【音】【向】【他】【问】【道】。 “【不】【是】【我】，【我】【没】【有】，【你】【别】【瞎】【说】……”【苏】【瑾】【当】【即】【就】【给】【他】【来】【了】【个】【否】【认】【三】【连】【并】【言】【道】：“【她】【们】【自】【己】【要】【来】【玩】【的】，【不】【关】【我】【的】【事】【啊】……” 【羽】【罗】【摇】【了】【摇】【头】，【说】【道】：“【本】【命】【武】【器】【已】【经】【解】【锁】【了】，【你】【激】【活】【了】【没】【呢】。” 【经】【过】【那】【一】【晚】8【个】【小】【时】【的】【爆】【肝】，【他】【们】【六】【人】
“【开】【个】【玩】【笑】！” 【深】【知】【沐】【雪】【此】【时】【的】【表】【情】【不】【对】，【急】【忙】【转】【移】【话】【题】！【又】【是】【一】【段】【时】【间】【没】【见】【到】【她】，【心】【中】【的】【想】【念】【都】【快】【泛】【滥】【成】【灾】【了】！ “【我】【说】【你】【带】【着】【这】【个】【破】【围】【巾】【干】【嘛】，【丑】【死】【了】，【赶】【紧】【摘】【了】【吧】！” 【左】【年】【伸】【手】【就】【要】【摘】【她】【的】【面】【巾】，【沐】【雪】【皱】【眉】【一】【个】【侧】【身】【躲】【过】，【反】【脚】【踢】【开】【他】！ 【于】【若】【抱】【着】【他】【的】【身】【躯】，【她】【求】【而】【不】【得】【的】【人】【竟】【然】【被】【人】【这】【样】【对】【待】，今日七乐彩开奖结果是【昨】【夜】【星】【辰】【异】【常】【的】【繁】【盛】，【今】【晨】【果】【然】【就】【淅】【淅】【沥】【沥】【的】【下】【起】【了】【小】【雨】！【刚】【一】【出】【门】，【正】【巧】【就】【遇】【到】【了】【叶】【铃】【兰】，【有】【些】【日】【子】【没】【见】【的】【两】【人】【便】【找】【了】【个】【酒】【楼】【喝】【茶】【闲】【聊】！ “【上】【官】【水】，【你】【有】【想】【过】【你】【跟】【君】【公】【子】【成】【亲】【的】【时】【候】，【会】【是】【什】【么】【样】【子】【吗】？”【纯】【情】【的】【少】【女】【带】【着】【三】【分】【羞】【涩】，【三】【分】【好】【奇】，【三】【分】【期】【待】，【以】【及】【一】【份】【担】【心】【与】【紧】【张】【向】【好】【友】【吐】【露】【自】【己】【的】【心】【事】【儿】。
【在】【这】【个】【紧】【要】【关】【头】，【陆】【行】【战】【车】【的】【一】【个】【引】【擎】【居】【然】【熄】【灭】【了】。 【老】【侏】【儒】【还】【没】【有】【说】【完】【话】，【就】【被】【一】【辆】【暴】【徒】【战】【车】【追】【上】，【车】【顶】【上】【的】【机】【械】【弹】【射】【武】【器】【已】【经】【瞄】【向】【了】【他】。 “【等】【一】【下】！”【老】【侏】【儒】【下】【意】【识】【的】【挥】【手】【阻】【止】，【但】【下】【一】【个】【就】【感】【觉】【到】【左】【腿】【一】【疼】。【当】【他】【低】【下】【头】【的】【时】【候】，【就】【看】【到】【一】【根】【锋】【利】【的】**【贯】【穿】【了】【他】【的】【大】【腿】。 【紧】【急】【时】【刻】，【陆】【长】【生】【再】【次】【使】【用】
【火】【焰】【瞬】【间】【弥】【漫】【场】【间】，【将】【唐】【尧】【的】【身】【形】【吞】【没】。 “【父】【皇】。”【离】【清】【尘】【紧】【张】【地】【看】【向】【神】【帝】。 【神】【帝】【淡】【然】【道】：“【这】【一】【招】【应】【该】【奈】【何】【不】【了】【唐】【医】【师】，【他】【拥】【有】【火】【字】【神】【文】，【对】【火】【焰】【神】【通】【有】【天】【然】【的】【克】【制】。【但】【他】【实】【在】【有】【些】【轻】【敌】，【不】【应】【该】【直】【接】【接】【下】【这】【一】【招】【的】。” 【两】【个】【器】【灵】【的】【脸】【上】【露】【出】【笑】【意】，【这】【就】【是】【他】【们】【想】【要】【的】【结】【果】。【他】【们】【看】【向】【朱】【雀】【神】【君】，【却】【发】【现】【朱】【雀】【神】