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The huge swings that defined stock trading in December have ended. That doesn’t mean investors think everything is fine.
In the bond market, traders of government debt are still signaling concerns about the direction of the United States economy. Among the clearest of these signs is the yield curve.
The yield curve essentially measures the difference between short-term and long-term government bonds. When investors are expecting economic growth, interest rates on long-term bonds like the 10-year Treasury note are usually higher than those on short-term debt. Why? Because under normal circumstances it is riskier to lend money out for 10 years than for, say, three months. (A lot can happen over the next decade that might keep your loan from being repaid, even by the government.)
But when concerns about the economy mount, that relationship can reverse. Investors tend to turn to long-term government bonds as a safe place to park money, pushing down their yields, while eschewing shorter-term government debt, causing the rates on those securities to rise.
In the worst case, when the rate on shorter-term bonds rises above that of longer-term ones, the yield curve is said to have inverted. And for the past 60 years, when that has happened for a sustained period, it has accurately predicted a recession.
We’re not there yet, but the gap between the two rates has been moving steadily closer for two years as the Federal Reserve has raised short-term interest rates.
The trend accelerated late last year as investors began to worry about risks to the United States economy. On Jan. 3, the gap between the three-month Treasury bill and the 10-year note shrank to just 0.14 percentage points, its narrowest level since September 2007, according to Tradeweb. It had stood at 0.89 percentage points at the start of November.
But a surprisingly strong jobs report on Jan. 4 and some soothing words from the Fed chairman, Jerome H. Powell, have taken some of the panic out of the stock market. The S&P 500 is up 7.7 percent since Jan. 3 and has been notably more stable even in the face of bad news about global growth.
Concerns in the bond market haven’t faded nearly as much, however. The spread between the 10-year note and three-month bills has widened since Jan. 3, but at about 0.34 percentage points on Thursday, is only back to where its was at the end of December.
What might explain the concerns? Well, there’s still plenty of evidence that the global economy is slowing down. Just this week, China reported its biggest monthly decline in exports in more than two years, and Germany said its economy had grown last year at its slowest rate since 2013.
And, of course, there’s the government shutdown. Typically the effect of a shutdown on the economy is short-lived. The longer the impasse goes on, however, the greater the chance that it can stall economic growth.
For now, though, the bond market is not signaling a recession. It has not inverted for a sustained period, and a flattening yield curve is not a consistent predictor of a coming recession. Only 20 percent of the time has the economy contracted in the 12 months after the spread between short-term and long-term government bonds narrowed to its current level, according to data from James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at the research firm Leuthold Group.B:
【周】【永】【宗】【眼】【里】【充】【满】【了】【杀】【意】，【他】【恨】【不】【得】【马】【上】【冲】【上】【来】，【狠】【狠】【地】【杀】【了】【李】【凌】【天】，【但】【是】【想】【现】【在】【他】【现】【在】【根】【本】【无】【法】【办】【法】【抵】【挡】【得】【了】【至】【尊】【境】【的】【攻】【击】。【如】【果】【一】【不】【小】【心】【被】【攻】【击】【中】，【自】【己】【也】【许】【会】【元】【神】【俱】【灭】。 【因】【此】，【周】【永】【宗】【只】【能】【站】【立】【在】【外】【面】，【观】【看】【李】【凌】【天】【和】【周】【雄】【赢】【的】【战】【斗】。 【和】【周】【永】【宗】【一】【样】，【鲁】【远】【玉】【也】【不】【敢】【靠】【近】【李】【凌】【天】【和】【周】【雄】【赢】，【生】【怕】【被】【两】【人】【的】【斗】
“【叔】【叔】？”【祁】【霂】【宛】【不】【知】【所】【措】【地】【看】【着】【面】【色】【沉】【寂】【的】【骆】【子】【承】，【小】【心】【翼】【翼】【地】【唤】【了】【一】【声】。 【不】【是】【刚】【才】【都】【还】【好】【好】【的】【吗】？ 【骆】【子】【承】【右】【手】【转】【而】【揽】【上】【她】【的】【腰】【身】，【将】【她】【拉】【近】【了】【些】，【低】【声】【问】【道】：“【化】【妆】【舞】【会】【上】【发】【生】【了】【什】【么】？” 【祁】【霂】【宛】【眨】【了】【眨】【眼】【睛】：“【没】【什】【么】【啊】……” 【难】【道】【小】【熊】【说】【了】【什】【么】？ 【骆】【子】【承】【脸】【色】【一】【黑】：“【宛】【儿】。” 【祁】【霂】
【江】【楚】【对】【着】【曹】【规】【还】【了】【一】【礼】，【说】【道】： “【曹】【伯】【父】，【折】【煞】【小】【侄】【了】！【之】【前】【多】【有】【得】【罪】，【还】【望】【伯】【父】【海】【涵】！” 【以】【他】【的】【身】【份】【可】【以】【完】【全】【不】【用】【还】【礼】，【不】【过】【看】【在】【曹】【舒】【的】【情】【分】【上】，【该】【给】【的】【面】【子】【还】【是】【要】【给】【的】！【曹】【规】【顿】【时】【受】【宠】【若】【惊】！【他】【连】【忙】【说】【道】： “【哪】【里】【哪】【里】！【是】【草】【民】【多】【有】【得】【罪】【才】【是】！【还】【望】【大】【司】【空】【海】【涵】！” 【听】【到】【这】【里】，【曹】【舒】【不】【耐】【烦】【的】【说】【道】福彩3d最新开奖结果—————— 【小】【男】【孩】【会】【不】【知】【道】【自】【己】【掌】【握】【的】【科】【技】【力】【量】【有】【多】【可】【怕】【吗】？ 【怎】【么】【可】【能】，【他】【是】【全】【世】【界】【最】【聪】【明】【的】【人】。 【之】【所】【以】【毫】【不】【犹】【豫】【的】【暴】【露】【出】【来】，【是】【以】【为】【自】【信】。 【他】【自】【信】【世】【人】【如】【果】【不】【使】【用】【某】【种】【特】【定】【的】【超】【能】【力】，【绝】【对】【无】【法】【查】【出】【自】【己】【的】【根】【脚】。 【何】【况】【查】【出】【也】【没】【事】，【很】【早】【之】【前】【就】【说】【过】【了】，【小】【男】【孩】【初】【具】‘【举】【世】【无】【双】’【的】【雏】【形】，【现】
“【过】【来】【了】！”【孙】【悟】【空】【突】【然】【出】【声】【提】【醒】。 “【话】【说】……【我】【们】【就】【这】【么】【看】【热】【闹】，【他】【们】【该】【不】【会】【恼】【羞】【成】【怒】【吧】?”【温】【舟】【躲】【在】【平】【底】【锅】【后】【小】【声】【提】【醒】。 “【不】【然】【呢】?【假】【装】【看】【风】【景】?”【黄】【毛】【抻】【着】【脖】【子】【往】【外】【看】，“【乌】【漆】【麻】【黑】【的】，【看】【个】【屁】【啊】！” 【黑】【暗】【中】【又】【是】【一】【声】【惨】【叫】，【紧】【接】【着】【是】【一】【声】【倒】【地】【的】【声】【音】，【距】【离】【大】【道】【已】【经】【很】【近】【了】，【温】【舟】【甚】【至】【能】【清】【楚】【的】【听】
【君】【落】【摇】【了】【摇】【头】【正】【好】【翻】【了】【个】【身】【说】“【没】【什】【么】” 【桃】【仙】【还】【准】【备】【在】【说】【什】【么】，【突】【然】【看】【着】【君】【落】【的】【屏】【幕】【一】【黑】，【什】【么】【都】【没】【有】【了】。 【桃】【仙】【惊】【恐】【的】【看】【着】【面】【前】【的】【变】【故】，【赶】【紧】【往】【屏】【幕】【边】【的】【红】【色】【按】【钮】【按】【了】【一】【下】。 【君】【落】【刚】【准】【备】【闭】【上】【眼】【睛】，【就】【听】【见】【门】【口】【的】【脚】【步】【声】。 【刚】【准】【备】【坐】【起】【来】，【却】【发】【现】【自】【己】【动】【不】【了】。 “【桃】【仙】!【怎】【么】【回】【事】!……” 【叫】
【盖】【九】【幽】【显】【然】【还】【没】【有】【从】【震】【惊】【之】【中】【缓】【过】【神】【来】，【再】【次】【感】【叹】【道】：“【纵】【然】【有】【限】，【他】【的】【这】【扇】【空】【间】【之】【门】【道】【台】【也】【足】【够】【强】【大】，【甚】【至】【可】【以】【说】【用】【恐】【怖】【来】【形】【容】。” “【只】【怕】【一】【些】【低】【段】【位】【的】【长】【生】【境】【千】【古】【巨】【头】【都】【奈】【何】【不】【了】【他】！” “【确】【实】【如】【此】，【也】【难】【怪】【这】【家】【伙】【如】【此】【自】【负】，【想】【不】【到】【拥】【有】【这】【等】【逆】【天】【的】【道】【台】，【甚】【至】【还】【摸】【到】【了】【一】【丝】【空】【间】【法】【则】！” 【唐】【锋】【也】【在】